Business beyond carbon: Thriving within Earth’s limits
Crossing planetary boundaries isn’t just an environmental issue — it’s a material risk to your business.
We’re almost out of runway.
Our global economy — your business included — is built on natural resources that we’re stretching far beyond their limits. Six of nine planetary boundaries, the safety rails for our society, have already been crossed. Tackling climate change is essential, but it is just one part of a much larger, more complex picture.
Why should you, as a business leader, care? Because ignoring planetary boundaries isn’t merely risky — it’s strategically reckless. Markets are shifting, regulations tightening, and resources will run thin. Buyers, too, increasingly reward those who act responsibly and penalise those who don’t.
The latest science, published in Nature, warns that if we continue on our current path, these environmental pressures will intensify dramatically by 2050. The good news is that forward-thinking businesses can still pivot, innovate, and thrive by embedding nature-positive strategies at their core.
Scenarios of change
The paper explores several models of future change to explore how humanity might operate within Earth’s limits. Using integrated environmental and economic models, the researchers assessed three core scenarios out to 2050.
The first, a “business-as-usual” trajectory, shows environmental degradation worsening across nearly all planetary boundaries.
A second scenario, focused solely on climate action aligned with the Paris Agreement, offers modest improvements but fails to restore global systems to safe levels.
The most promising path is the “sustainability” scenario. It layers climate policy with shifts to healthier diets, cuts in food waste, and major efficiency gains in water and nutrient use. The result? A marked reduction in ecological pressure, though even this isn’t enough to bring us fully back within safe limits by 2050.
This figure illustrates how planetary boundary indicators are predicted to change over time (2030, 2050, 2100) under different scenarios
An appropriate business response?
This is a strategic inflection point. The risks are real, and taking the wrong path will have significant repercussions. While society will eventually need to live within planetary boundaries, its unclear when that alignment will occur. The destination is clear, but the path is hidden.
Each scenario comes with a different set of risks and opportunities. For example, business as usual may come with less pressure on businesses to act in the short-term, but increases the chance that physical risks hit operations and value chains. Meanwhile, the sustainability scenario may bring about a more orderly transition, but come with new taxes and a rise in capital costs for polluting sectors.
The uncertainty doesn’t excuse inaction. No matter what path society takes, the ones that anticipate and adapt will be the ones that endure. To lead now, businesses should:
Embed nature into corporate strategy: Move beyond carbon. Integrate all planetary boundaries into strategic risk frameworks and align sustainability goals with nature positive outcomes.
Assess and disclose nature-related risks: Use frameworks like the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) to understand your dependencies and impacts on nature.
Future-proof your value chain: Audit your supply chain through the lens of environmental resilience. How exposed are you to water scarcity? Soil degradation? Biodiversity loss? Act now to diversify sourcing, localise where possible, and invest in regenerative practices.
Rethink product portfolios: Shift away from resource-intensive products and services. Innovate towards circular models, low-impact materials, and business models that decouple growth from extraction.
We are approaching the end of an old economic story — one built on extraction, waste, and ecological denial. A new chapter is being written by those who see the full picture, who act with courage, and who place nature at the heart of value creation.
